Competition, Complexity & Risk

“Due to the systemic nature of emerging risk, and the severe potential impact of such events, companies with slight advantages in detecting and managing emerging risks can obtain significant competitive opportunities.” Accenture, 2011. Accenture is actually talking about Brian Arthur’s Law of Increasing Return[1] (although it is doubtful they are aware of this) where a tiny advantage…

Viva The Revolution in Predictive Analytics! A Shameless Parody of Bogart’s “Treasure of Sierra Madre” and Hemingway’s “Old Man & The Sea.”

Okay, I poke fun at the rising elite of consulting, i.e. those involved with predictive analytics or “the revolution in analytics.” Yet it raises serious issues around the capabilities and limitations of certain kinds of analytical modeling.  I am, by the way, a “fan” of quantitative methods …so keep smiling kick back and have a Corona. The…

Japan’s “Black Swan” Catastrophes — Implications for Consulting Firms

We need to understand these are multi-faceted and emerging catastrophes. New risks will appear as events unfold over weeks and months. The need to identify and mitigate risk is not limited to pre-event assessments; and early solutions and priorities will shift and change.  It will also require new perspectives and tools to manage complexity. Catastrophe destabilizes….everything, but it especially destabilizes relationships. The…