Complexity, Risk & Uncertainty

Today’s “Gremlins” — Complexity & Uncertainty Consider an airline that has fine tuned its daily flight schedule and passenger seat pricing with yield management techniques. The strategy is set to optimize asset deployment and return on investment for a flight. And that works very well until the system becomes destabilized . One or more planes become inoperable…

Complexity, Sharks & Risk Consultants – How “Internal Auditor” Magazine Got It Wrong

They got it wrong. Internal Auditor published an article by Neil Baker “Managing the Complexity of Risk” claiming that “The ISO 31000 framework aims to provide a foundation for effective risk management within the organization.”  Well….not so fast. “Complexity” has become something of a buzz word in today’s business culture.  But I think our understanding…

Competition, Complexity & Risk

“Due to the systemic nature of emerging risk, and the severe potential impact of such events, companies with slight advantages in detecting and managing emerging risks can obtain significant competitive opportunities.” Accenture, 2011. Accenture is actually talking about Brian Arthur’s Law of Increasing Return[1] (although it is doubtful they are aware of this) where a tiny advantage…

Re-Thinking Systems, Particle Physics and Candy Mints

CERTS: Is it a breath mint or a candy mint? It is perhaps the second most vexing taxonomic dilemma of the 20th century, with the wave-particle duality of quantum physics edging first place by a hair. CERTS is part of American advertising folk lore. Since we’re not gunning for a fight we’ll just call it a “mint”…

Predictive Analytics – Reducing Risk of Heart Attack Mortality During Hospital Stays

 OVERVIEW: Performance analytics provide the empirical basis for the strategic and tactical management of healthcare outcomes.  As discussed in the referenced JAMA study, for every percentage increase in the guideline adherence rate in hospitals there was an equivalent decrease in the likelihood the patients treated would die before discharge.  Ironically, in the 350 hospitals studied,…