Israel’s Operation Orchard – Victory On A Microchip

Operation Orchard – Syria is about to go nuclear, then somebody turned off the air defense radar & Israeli jets are inbound to target. This is September 6, 2007, not all that long ago. One moment the reactor is there, the next moment a hole in the desert. Go figure! Is it just coincidence that…

Complexity, Sharks & Risk Consultants – How “Internal Auditor” Magazine Got It Wrong

They got it wrong. Internal Auditor published an article by Neil Baker “Managing the Complexity of Risk” claiming that “The ISO 31000 framework aims to provide a foundation for effective risk management within the organization.”  Well….not so fast. “Complexity” has become something of a buzz word in today’s business culture.  But I think our understanding…

Japan’s “Black Swan” Catastrophes — Implications for Consulting Firms

We need to understand these are multi-faceted and emerging catastrophes. New risks will appear as events unfold over weeks and months. The need to identify and mitigate risk is not limited to pre-event assessments; and early solutions and priorities will shift and change.  It will also require new perspectives and tools to manage complexity. Catastrophe destabilizes….everything, but it especially destabilizes relationships. The…

Predictive Analytics – Reducing Risk of Heart Attack Mortality During Hospital Stays

 OVERVIEW: Performance analytics provide the empirical basis for the strategic and tactical management of healthcare outcomes.  As discussed in the referenced JAMA study, for every percentage increase in the guideline adherence rate in hospitals there was an equivalent decrease in the likelihood the patients treated would die before discharge.  Ironically, in the 350 hospitals studied,…

The Curly Factor & Risk? How to Profit From Coarse Behavior

We  talk about “risk intelligence”  and various gurus and philosophers have called it “the capacity to learn about risk from experience and a special kind of intelligence for thinking about risk and uncertainty.” I’m not exactly sure what that means, except you’re going pay a lot find out; and you’re also likely to get involved with estimating probabilities…

Performance, Risk, Complexity & All That Jazz

What do we mean by “performance?”  It’s not a philosophical question to ponder over a Starbucks.  The world is awash with complexity and uncertainty. It’s show time, folks. Performance? Are your expectations realistic?  Better yet, are your expectations relevant?How do you know? We know from ecology that some entities – fish, fauna, football teams, multi-nationals –  become…