Complexity, Risk & Resilience – (Part 1)

Several years ago a colleague asked me a simple question: “Think about how your work might help business leaders to better understand their environment.” I took a couple of days and sent him a brief letter and paper. (I haven’t written anything on Prologue for almost 4 years. Maybe this will break the dry spell.…

Complexity, Risk & Uncertainty

Today’s “Gremlins” — Complexity & Uncertainty Consider an airline that has fine tuned its daily flight schedule and passenger seat pricing with yield management techniques. The strategy is set to optimize asset deployment and return on investment for a flight. And that works very well until the system becomes destabilized . One or more planes become inoperable…

Japan’s “Black Swan” Catastrophes — Implications for Consulting Firms

We need to understand these are multi-faceted and emerging catastrophes. New risks will appear as events unfold over weeks and months. The need to identify and mitigate risk is not limited to pre-event assessments; and early solutions and priorities will shift and change.  It will also require new perspectives and tools to manage complexity. Catastrophe destabilizes….everything, but it especially destabilizes relationships. The…

Re-Thinking Systems, Particle Physics and Candy Mints

CERTS: Is it a breath mint or a candy mint? It is perhaps the second most vexing taxonomic dilemma of the 20th century, with the wave-particle duality of quantum physics edging first place by a hair. CERTS is part of American advertising folk lore. Since we’re not gunning for a fight we’ll just call it a “mint”…